A near record-breaking low pressure system to our west is going to shake up our weather over the next 36 hours.
The good news is that the trends into later this afternoon and evening looks good for anything outdoors!
Let’s break down this setup by time...
2am-6am: A broken line of thunderstorms will approach from the west. The wind fields will be strong in general so it will be a windy period for us. There is a risk a few of the stronger downpours could enhance those wind gusts so we will watch that. The risk for severe weather is low as not all of the ingredients are lined up for this batch. Some pea-size hail is possible but nothing larger and mainly west of I-65. The trend in this band will be to slow it down and weaken it as well. This means those of you east of I-65 have a lower risk at experience these downpours while those to the west will stand the higher chance.
6am-NOON: Any spotty showers will continue to fade. It will be breezy and warm. Overcast skies will rule for the start of this period with perhaps a few sun breaks toward lunch.
NOON-3pm: A few sun breaks possible along the I-65 corridor. Warming up to and over 70° at this point. A new line of t-storms starts to develop near our western edge of WAVE Country (roughly Orange Co south to just west of Grayson).
3pm-6pm: A more pronounced line of thunderstorm cells takes shape across southern IN into west-central Kentucky. Impacting Louisville during this period. The line of cells will be slightly slanted so areas north will experience the t-storm risk a tad earlier than points south. Windy and warm period. Severe wind gusts possible as well as an isolated tornado.
6pm-9pm: The line of thunderstorm cells will continue to march east of I-65. Severe weather threat likely to continue until it reaches near I-75. Rapid drying expected west to east although staying quite windy.
9pm+ Radar calms down and the wind gusts will slowly ease downward as we cool things down.
Morning round: Heavy downpours, pea-size hail, a few intense lightning strikes, wind gusts near 50 mph
Afternoon/Early Evening round: Heavy downpours, quarter-size hail, intense cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts 60-70 mph, isolated tornado
As with most severe weather potential events, conditions just hours before it is expected to take place can alter the outcome significantly. So this is how things look as of data based on the data we have been reviewing. Once we get more real-time reports Thursday morning with the 8am weather balloon launches, we should be able to announce of confidence level on the threat potential.
We have lucked out the past 2 events, let’s make it a 3rd! As always, make sure you stay weather aware and have a way to get weather alerts.