4 main weather “events” to track over the next few days.
1... Gusty winds later today and tonight. Gusts of 30-45 mph will be possible along/west of I-65. Gusts around 35-40 mph will be possible east. Any bands of heavier rain/thunderstorms (see point number 2) could locally enhance those values briefly. Gusts will ease downward Friday morning/midday.
2....Risk for 2 lines of thunderstorms early Friday. One line *could* develop near I-65 at the start of the AM commute with the second one already on the radar at that time...and approaching from the west. That line will be in a weakening phase but still able to produce some briefly strong wind gusts. It will be that first line we will need to watch for anything heavier that could pop-up. Severe risk for this event is quite low.
3... When does the rain arrive Saturday night? It appears an overcast, high deck of clouds will move in during the air show. High enough to still allow for a full show. That deck will lower near sunset and eventually lower to the point that showers will develop. At this time, it appears dry air will allow this “shower increase” to happen at a slow rate ....south to north. This would allow for the fireworks to launch without rain worries. My concern is that it won’t be long after that point showers will increase with heavier rain after midnight. I would prepare for some nice air show weather ... in the 60s though hazy skies. Long sleeves if standing at the river. Once we move into fireworks time, NE winds combined with temps in the upper 50s will make it feel closer to say 52°. So I would bring a jacket! In addition, the rain chance will go late evening/overnight, so bring rain gear just in case you have to deal with some light rain trying to get to your car after the show. Hopefully we can get most people home before the heavier rates kick in.
4... Risk for strong thunderstorms Sunday PM. The track/speed of the main low pressure responsible for the mess above will pass through SW to NE during the day Sunday. There is some support for a slower speed of that track. If so, we could actually warm up in the afternoon (well into the 70s) with thunderstorms developing across central/eastern KY especially. If this setup indeed plays out, severe weather will be possible. Let’s hope the faster speed of this system is how the data will soon trend.
As you can see, there is a lot to monitor for a short period of time. Be sure to stay close to our forecasts as many updates are likely to take place.