Nice and warm the next few days with breezy afternoons. The focus will be on the setup for Thursday PM into Friday.
Today and Wednesday... mainly sunny today with more of mid/high cloud deck Wednesday. Highs 75-82 possible. Gusty afternoon winds in the 20-30 mph range. Not bad at all.
Thursday... we start off with a partly sunny sky but fading t-storms will move in by lunch. Some of the data suggests they will fade away to just batches of clouds...keeping most of us dry all the way into the afternoon. That is indeed possible. Areas east of I-65 look to get closer 80° while lower 70s more likely west due to more cloud cover. So yes, we will get the warming. But the afternoon will likely feature a slight drop in dewpoints as well as little forcing. So the radar looks to stay quiet.
Thursday night... low pressure starts to dig in from the west. Showers and thunderstorms blossom on the radar. The best forcing looks to be TN southward but it is iffy all the way up to I-64. Wind fields would support severe wind gusts. Fuel as far as heating will start to wane with sunset. However, fuel in terms of rising dewpoints would help in firing up the thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has areas south/west of Louisville with a low-end severe risk for now and that seems to fit the data trends. There is a chance it could spread a bit more east to cover more of central KY. Impressive rain totals of 1-2″ possible.
Friday... low pressure deepens and slows just to our east. Not a good spot for us. This will keep it breezy, cloudy, scattered showers and quite frankly...COLD! At least for late April. Highs may struggle to get out of the 40s in many areas with the wind chill factor at play. Sounds lovely, doesn’t it?
Saturday...the low will pull away to our east but slowly. The better chance at sunshine will be west of I-65. We could see a dramatic range of temperatures across WAVE Country with around 60 degrees west and 40s east!
The good news is that data trends still support this low being out of our hair by Easter as it turns rapidly warmer!