The radar will get more active over the next couple of days. Many of you will get missed with the first couple of rounds with Thursday featuring the greater coverage of rain.
Rest of today: Cold front approaches. Warm temps well into the 70s and even a few 80 degree numbers. T-storms will develop right along the front where the moisture builds up. This means areas north and south of that front will stay mainly dry. Latest indications are that the “rain zone” will be between I-64 and the Parkways after 3pm. While some strong wind gusts will be possible, most will be heavy rain producers and intense lightning. The front will push toward the TN border tonight...taking the rain chance with it.
Wednesday: Once again, we will start off dry. The front to the south will start to inch back northward into the afternoon. The exact speed and location of the front is still varying on the data by the afternoon. That will be important as the greatest potential of t-storms will be along and south of that front. There is a bit more wind energy to work with so we will need to watch for isolated severe wind gusts and even an isolated tornado. Perhaps the bigger concern is that some of the same locations from today’s rain could get hit again with more heavy t-storms. This will start to push the limits on some flash flooding in spots.
Thursday: Another cold front will move in from the northwest and will finally drag some dry air back in late Thursday night, but until that happens...more showers and thunderstorms. This time around, most of our counties will be at risk for the rain. The severe threat looks low but need to watch our southern/southeastern counties where some heating could power up stronger cells there in the afternoon. More heavy rainfall totals look to take place and let’s hope this round avoids the same locations to east the flash flooding issue but we can’t rule that out.
Overall thoughts--- this is not a major severe weather event coming our way. This looks more isolated but non-zero. I want to make sure you stay weather-aware if you have outdoor plans. As I stated above, I think the flash flooding risk is going to be a bigger issue we need to watch out for. This looks especially true for those of you near the Parkways. Stay close to forecast updates.