We are now getting close to the 7 day window of the 145th ‘Running for the Roses’. So let’s dive into how the pattern is trending today for the days ahead...
Into Tonight... Windy all day. That will be the only concern for the Balloon Glow near 9pm. The pressure gradient should relax to allow for slackening winds, but it will be close. Bring a jacket, it will be a chilly evening.
Saturday... It still looks great for the runners and the balloons early in the day. Light winds with chilly air. The issues for this day take place in the afternoon. A warm front will move in to increase the clouds as the day wears on. A period of downpours (some thunder) develop west of WAVE Country near 3-5pm, and track east. They shouldn’t last long but plan for at least some rain during the 5pm-7pm window. Temperatures will be well into the 60s to start but the rain will cool things down closer to 59 or 60 before sunset. Keep this in mind when dressing for Opening Night at Churchill! We will get a break mid evening before one more shower chance at midnight as the cold front portion pushes through.
Sunday... The pick of the weekend when it comes to dry weather and sunshine. It will be a bit cool, however. Barely into the 60s for a few hours in the afternoon.
Monday... A cold front will approach then stall near IN/KY. The exact location is still wavering with the data but it appears only our northern sections would be a risk for a few t-storms. Rest of us partly cloudy and warm as we see a big jump in warmth compared to Sunday.
Tuesday... The front should become a warm front and lift even farther north. This will keep the t-storm chance low and likely push temperatures into the 80s.
Wednesday... A low pressure will try to drag the front back into the area by evening. This means a warm day but also a risk for thunderstorms.
Thursday... The front may stall near us or just to our south. It still looks mild but the risk for a few t-storms will certainly be there.
Friday... The front will start off near us but another wave of low pressure will try to pass through and push this front south by Friday night. This setup is still highly uncertain as not all of the data agrees with that idea. The plan is to keep t-storms in the forecast for now. Hopefully if they do develop, it is a one shot deal and over. We shall see.
Saturday... I like the trends since yesterday to keep the front south of us for this day. If this idea holds, expect some sunshine and cooler weather in the 60s. After last year, I’ll take it!! The only downside to cool air like that is the sunshine can promote afternoon clouds and even a spotty shower. But nothing heavy. But just like Oaks Day, this setup is far from locked in.
So this is how the days are looking. The strength of these lows pressures will fight a balancing act with high pressure in the Atlantic to decide how the fronts drift around. Just slight differences lead to big changes in setups like this. Who’s pulling for the high pressure to win and push all of this north?!?! Hopefully all of you :)
Stay close to the forecast. We will keep updating this as we gather more data and analyze.