Very changeable weather pattern ahead from start to finish this week. Unfortunately, the pattern is trending toward the more active side toward the big race itself.
Rest of today... warm front passing through. The wind will pick up but showers will have a tough time staying on the radar. A few will be possible north of I-64 and west of I-65. We should climb into the 80s by late day.
Tuesday... some clouds early but sunshine will bust through by the afternoon. The air will heat up at the ground and above our heads. This means a quiet radar with very warm, summer-like temperatures.
Wednesday... another very warm day. Clouds will try to increase late but if they are delayed, this day could end up warmer than Tuesday. And that means 90 degrees will be within reach. T-storms will approach from the west and weaken as they cross I-65. Having said that, some in the path could pick up some stronger t-storms so we’ll need to watch this.
Thursday... cold front pushes into WAVE Country. Expect scattered t-storms to light up the radar. Will they take place during the parade? That is unclear at this early stage. Just prepare for that chance. The overall wind speeds do look low enough for the inflatables at this time at least.
Friday... low pressure/wave of rain moves in. It looks fairly scattered which means timing still has to be worked out. With the rain chance and clouds, highs only into the lower 70s expected.
Saturday... another low pressure/wave of rain passes through...but a bit more south with this one. How far of a “reach” it will have is going to be the tough part. Louisville looks to be right on the edge. Again, too early to call. With a more north wind and clouds/rain at risk, many will stay in the 60s for highs.
So no, this is not an ideal setup toward Derby. The good news is I have seen the setup for this waver many times since last week. Just small chances in the timing of these low pressures (and their tracks) can really make a difference. Hang in there. We are watching the data very carefully. More updates to come!