High pressure is still controlling our weather and will...for until late Wednesday/early Thursday. After that we are at the mercy of a cold front a couple of low pressures.
Timing it out...
Rest of today/tonight: A front in the area now is losing the battle to the high pressure and will soon fade off the weather map. As that happens, more and more hazy sunshine will take place. Expect a good amount of heating today into the mid 80s. Any risk for a pop-up t-storm looks west. It will be much more of a “muggy” feel to the air tonight as low level moisture gets trapped near the ground.
Wednesday: A line of t-storms will fade as they approach before sunrise. The “debris” clouds from them will drift over us. This could allow for another cloudy/hazy start to the day. By midday, they will thin and sunshine is back. We will heat to levels just like today if not warmer.
Wednesday night: Thunderstorms will start to beat down on our high pressure. This means a more active look to the radar across W KY and S and SW Indiana. A few could reach severe wind potential. They will still struggle to get much more to the east than I-65 so the more south/east you are, the better the chance you will remain dry.
Thursday: We lose the protection of the high pressure altogether. The front will be over us with some wind energy but nothing excessive. The fuel, however, will be a bit more at play. This all adds up to scattered thunderstorms that will have little motion to them. They will bounce off each other in a random fashion. This means timing of them developing is going to be a pain. Some could even become briefly strong as well. We will narrow this setup down more soon.
Friday: An area of low pressure will pass just to our south with some enhanced showers and thunder. The timing of this looks to happen during the daytime and therefore the greater chance for rain looks to follow that. This doesn’t mean rain for the Oaks at this point, but it does mean rain chances need to remain for the day itself. We will get specific soon.
Saturday: Another low pressure moves to our south but this time...even more to the south. So this is good as far as trying to keep most of the rain threat south of Churchill Downs. It remains too close to call on this one of course.
Not a clear-cut setup here with thunderstorms, a cold front and its BAM...over and dry. This is a very sluggish pattern that will have a sluggish end.
Hang in there!