The main focus remains on the Derby setup but we always have to monitor the weather closely before we even get to the big race.
Here is the breakdown...
Rest of today--- warming up into the 80s with gusty winds over 30 mph at times. Spotty t-storms develop across W KY and track into southern IN after 3pm into the evening. A few could work into Louisville but coverage is expected to be mainly take place north/west of the city. It’ll be close! While isolated severe wind/hail reports are possible, most will remain below that limit. Still be mindful that intense cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain can take place without a warning.
Tonight-- Spotty thunderstorms will drift more east into KY and start to ease down in coverage. A warm front to our south will then push in. Timing of this will be important in terms of re-development of thunderstorms near sunrise.
Thursday-- Warm front passes north. It becomes windy and warm again into the 80s. A piece of energy will then track from near St. Louis toward Indy during the afternoon/evening. As that takes place, a more organized area of thunderstorms is expected to develop. These pose more of a damaging wind threat and need to be watched. Could they impact the parade? Too early to know that. We do know the wind will be an issue for the inflatables. We will monitor the timing of thunderstorms carefully.
Friday (OAKS): It appears the energy from Thursday night will keep the rain chance going into early Friday then pulls east. That is good in terms of keeping the highest rain chance early in the day. The only issue we need to watch is that if we were to dry out in the afternoon and pick up some modest heating, additional (yet smaller) downpours could develop. It only takes one...
Saturday (DERBY): Data continues to increase the coverage of the next wave of moisture. Some of the rain will have locally heavy downpours. At this time, the greater risk for those will be across central Kentucky. Overall, this looks to be an overcast day with passing areas of showers all the way into the evening. While much of the focus still looks south, the amount of moisture this system has means the rain chance will have to stay in for all of WAVE Country. We will get more data on this setup around lunch today. Stay tuned!!