Hot and humid will rule most of our weather headlines into the weekend and for parts of next week as well.
But I want to focus this update more on the thunderstorm risk.
We will certainly be in a setup for several of the days ahead that involves just your typical pop-up afternoon t-storms. Anything you deal with very warm weather and high humidity, there is always a risk anything that pops can turn briefly severe. That is why you need to keep the WAVE 3 Weather App close-by when outdoors to get any alerts.
However, there will be about 2-3 time periods in which a more organized severe threat could take place.
This setup involves a cold front that will be slowing down as it enters Kentucky ...slowly leaning forward to stall out just south of Louisville by sunrise Monday. There will be 2 pieces of energy that will help push the front through. The first one arrives in the early/mid afternoon time period. If we start off cloudy, this one will not have a ton of fuel to work with. There will be a risk for a broken line of thunderstorms to pass through. Severe threat looks low. There is even a chance that this line will be broken enough to allow for several gaps in the rain. In this situation, we would want it to remain solid. I say that because the 2nd lobe of energy that moves in during the evening has the dynamics that we don’t want any fuel involved with. So if we remain stable from the afternoon rain, the 2nd risk at thunderstorms will focus mainly from Indy to Evansville with little to nothing locally when it arrives.
But what if the first line fades or never materializes? That would mean (obviously) this second wave would have more of a punch to it when it comes to severe weather. This would be especially true along/west of I-65.
When will we know which way this will go? Sunday morning. That is just how these setups work. So no need to cancel plans or to worry yourself. Just be aware of the potential and know we will watch the trends carefully into the weekend.
A near similar setup to Sunday in which another low pressure will send a front into our area that will slow/stall and become horizontal across the area. The difference with this one will be more fuel in terms of very high moisture content and strong heating to our south. You never want to hear “stall” with any front but certainly in this situation. This could certainly be a flash flooding threat but with the front around in general, there will be a risk for severe t-storms as well. High pressure to our south will want to “push” this front north Thursday to build the heat back in and calm the radar down. However, there is not strong agreement on just how quickly that would take place. It is far out so lots could still change but I wanted to at least lay out how the setup looks today before we get into the weekend.
Another front will try to do yet another repeat of this mess over the holiday weekend but that is too far out to get enough specifics to hash out. We’ll know more on that next week.
Try to stay cool and hydrate as these first surges of heat are always tough to adjust to. Especially this early.