One more hazy/hot day before the radar lights up again with thunderstorms.
Coverage/timing/intensity remain the bigger challenges with Wednesday/Thursday in terms of those thunderstorms.
Here is the overall setup...
Fading area of thunderstorms arrives from the west in the morning. They should be elevated as they move into WAVE Country which means mainly a limited heavy rain/lightning /small hail threat. There remains some doubt on their time of arrival as well as how well they can even hold together. Just like we have witnessed many times this season, timing is everything when it comes to heating of the day/fuel. Current trends support keeping this batch together long enough to move toward I-65 by late morning. Models tend to move too slow with these setups so it may be closer to or just after sunrise. Again, timing is key on that as an earlier arrival would mean a greater number of hours to heat up for the afternoon/evening round. This would also means a stronger second round with some severe wind/hail potential.
However, if we play the other side of the field, a slower arrival would stabilize us for much of the afternoon.
There is a potential third round (or second if the afternoon one is taken off the table) that would move in Wednesday night. Even signs of some late day heating in the 5pm-7pm period could help power this round up to contain strong winds/hail. Reaching severe potential would be more uncertain.
Overall, this is another conditional threat as one piece affects the other ...then the other...then another. You get the idea. What we do know is there is some wind energy to work with so the fuel portion is the part to watch. We saw what happened just last Sunday when you limit the fuel intake. They can still be intense thunderstorms with torrential rainfall and lots of lightning but limited in severe wind/hail.
We will just monitor things this evening to start narrowing down wave # 1 as it will be the one to kick off the chain reaction of ideas for day.
There is actually better wind energy on this day but limited fuel in terms of heating. Data is a bit more aggressive on starting the day with rain/clouds that could linger most of the daylight period. That would indeed limit the other ingredients needed for severe wind/hail. Obviously, this day would be upgraded to Alert Day status if any fuel can be gain...but as I stated, odds are against that for now.
After Thursday we do have another couple weaker waves to watch for spotty showers/t-storms into the weekend. There looks to be a decent push of drier/cooler air Sunday night into about Tuesday of next week.