One more quiet day before we need to end up on radar watch for the next several days ahead.
The two overall themes remains, Severe Potential Wednesday and Flash Flooding/River Flooding into the Weekend.
There are 3 potential rounds of t-storms Wednesday.
1st: Near sunrise. These will be fading in severity but will still have a torrential rain and intense lightning impact. Risk is higher west of I-65 than east.
2nd: Afternoon hours. *Conditional Threat*. Wherever the sunrise round fades, could serve as the starting point for this next round. Not all data fires up this round but if enough fuel/heating can be realized, this would then be the main band to watch for not only the heavy rain threat but severe wind/hail. Location TBD.
3rd: Mid to late evening hours: *Conditional Threat*. This would initiate farther northern of WAVE Country in the afternoon...then drops down toward Kentucky during the evening. It is conditional on a couple of ideas. One being the idea that if round # 2 doesn’t take place and/or develops more south than expected. This would leave southern IN or perhaps central KY still prime for a round of severe t-storms. The sun will be setting during this time so that amount of fuel will be fading each hour. The other is that round # 2 does indeed develop in the afternoon. That will steal much of the “fun” out of this third round with only a marginal severe threat.
So as you can see, nothing is locked in on this one. And as typically the case, one event affects the next one then the next one and so on. Just be weather aware morning to night Wednesday and we will keep you posted on how this setup looks to evolve. Just remember, severe weather warnings or not, the rainfall rates will be intense.
TROPICAL WEEKEND RAIN:
The tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is going to fade away but its moisture will get yanked north by a new low pressure crawling through Texas and Arkansas later this week. When you combine its slow movement and the copious amounts of moisture in the Gulf, the setup is there for rounds of heavy rain. It will not rain all the time but in bands/clusters. Main period for impact looks to be late Thursday-Sunday. Heaviest over Kentucky compared to Indiana at this point. It will take a cold front early next week to kick this little guy out of the way.
If you look at both setups together, some could see rainfall totals in the 2-4″ range with localized amounts of 3-6″ possible.