Storm Chase 2019 Blog (6/6) - Day 5 - Mt Rushmore today, severe storms tomorrow

Thursday is a slower day for storms before a more active last day of the chase on Friday

Storm Chase 2019 Blog (6/6) - Day 5 - Mt Rushmore today, severe storms tomorrow
Ryan Hoke's 2019 Great Plains Storm Chase

HOT SPRINGS, S.D. (WAVE) - Good morning from Hot Springs, South Dakota! Like yesterday, today’s storm threat is low due to a lack of wind shear and limited instability. Yesterday’s storm we chased near Newcastle, Wyoming stayed weak and faded rather quickly. A storm or two may try to develop in Southeast Montana and potentially over the Black Hills of South Dakota later this afternoon but the same fate is very likely.

HRRR model simulated radar output for the afternoon of Thursday, June 6th.
HRRR model simulated radar output for the afternoon of Thursday, June 6th.

The Storm Prediction Center has no risk area for this region, which makes sense given the marginal conditions. We’re visiting Mount Rushmore and other attractions earlier in the day today since we have some time to waste before this small storm potential gets going.

The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, June 6th.
The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, June 6th.

Tomorrow’s chase looks far more active as the trough over the Pacific Northwest will start kicking out over the Northern Plains, accelerating the mid level wind flow over the Dakotas. This will increase both that wind energy and wind shear in this area. Severe storms are far more likely than the past couple of days for us with this feature moving in.

500 mb wind chart from the NAM model for Friday, June 7th.
500 mb wind chart from the NAM model for Friday, June 7th.

The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk area for parts of the Dakotas on Friday to cover this severe weather risk. Friday is our last chase day and we have to be back in Rapid City, SD that evening for everyone’s flights scheduled to leave that morning after, so the placement of this storm activity is perfect. Typically Friday is a travel day only since we have to be back in our base city this evening. This time we’ll already be right next to our base city as we’re chasing, giving us that extra day.

The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Friday, June 7th, issued on Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Friday, June 7th, issued on Thursday.

Keep up with my storm chase today by following my social media accounts...

And of course at select times during our evening newscasts on WAVE 3 News this upcoming week I’ll be streaming video of our chase when possible. Daily updates right here on the WAVE 3 Weather Blog (bookmark this link) will be available as well.

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