Main concern over the next few days will be flash flooding. And this looks especially true for central/southern Kentucky.
Flash Flood WATCH is out for areas on the KY side of the Ohio River until Sunday night. Those of you on the Indiana side could get added later... and just because you are not in it now doesn’t mean you don’t have a flash flooding risk.
This all involves a slow and broad area of low pressure near Arkansas. It will drift slowly to the northeast by Sunday into Kentucky. Since the flow around low pressure is counter-clockwise, the tropical moisture is getting pulled into its southeast side and thrown into our area. You almost have to treat this like you would with spiral bands of heavy rain with a hurricane. That will be in clusters/bands and will fade on/re-develop as they drift around the low pressure. This makes it VERY challenging to pick out exact rain totals for any given one location and not to mention....WHEN they would impact your area?!?
The heating of the day is a natural trigger that will enhance the coverage of these downpours all the way into Monday. But there will be at least some wind energy (starting tonight) that will try to keep the downpours active at night as well.
The atmosphere is prime for rainfall rates of 2-2.25″ of rain per hour. With the slow nature of these downpours, some could see those values realized and if sticks around longer than one hour...well, you see the issue.
Several areas near/south of the Parkways have already picked up 2-4″ of rain over the past couple of days. You could double that before the weekend is over. Northern Kentucky and southern Indiana have witnessed lesser amounts overall with only a few spotty locations over 1″.
I know many have outdoor events planned and this is not a good setup for them. The only good news I can state here is that there will be breaks in the rain. Hopefully it will happen at the right time for your plans. But you need to be prepared for the other solution as well.
Please use caution traveling with these downpours, especially at night. Flash flooding kills more people in our area than any other weather element. Turn around, don’t drown!
The video will cover all of these details and more!