There are a couple of issues to track to close out this week. After that, we return to the tropical/humid setup with downpours. Lovely.
Where will the t-storms pop this afternoon and how strong will they get?
Short-term data trends still support a zone from Adair County north to Washington Co ...then east toward Franklin County. They will then get organized and track toward I-75 and out of WAVE Country. This will all happen fairly quick. Current timing suggests 2pm-6pm. Heavy rain, some gusty winds and hail possible. I would not let your guard down completely if you live a bit more west along I-65, however the risk is much lower in that zone as it stands now. We will continue to monitor the midday trends. If you do miss out on the rain/storms, it won’t be a bad afternoon with temperatures near 80.
How long will the clouds linger on Thursday and will downpours become an issue?
This is a classic upper low moving through the Ohio Valley...but at an odd time of the year. Odd in the sense it is quite cool aloft but the sun angle is fairly high. This means any sun breaks can heat the ground up in a hurry. That imbalance can lead to more clouds and downpours if there is still enough moisture to work with.
This looks to start as a classic overcast/cool/drizzly setup. As the low moves east by lunch, the southern and western side of the low will start to see the clouds break up. Again, not a good thing in that only more pockets of clouds and downpours would re-develop and fill those gaps back in. That process would keep repeating until the sun got lower in the sky and the heating of the ground ceases. I think WAVE Country will be split with an overcast/cool setup to the northeast with temperatures stuck in the lower 60s. For the rest of us, we should get some sun breaks that will help warm us up (in pockets) to around 70 with the added risk for a spotty shower/downpour to form. Just keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans.
There is one other note to mention on this....it will be quite breezy. Gusts over 30 mph will be possible that times. Overall, the air will feel “chilly” for June.
Friday looks to end on a perfect note. After a chilly morning (40s) we warm back up with lots of blue sky with highs in the 70s.
The weekend is when our pattern shifts back into the tropical setup with an approaching front that will settle in by Sunday and may not leave town...for days. This will lead to a strong storm/heavy rain setup we will need to monitor into next week.
Enjoy the break while we have it!