The main headline through at least Tuesday of next week will be the heat.
T-storms chances will take second place which isn’t exactly good for this time of the year to go too long without some rainfall. You can easily enter a very dry/low-end drought status...despite weeks of rain before that.
Here is how the TRENDS ARE LOOKING TODAY...
Day #21 into the 90s for Louisville this afternoon with moisture levels determining just how high we go. Current thinking is about 93° with a limited heat index of about 3-4° above that. Either way, hot. No trigger in the area for t-storms but if anything could pop, it would be to our SW. The heat island will kick in for the city again tonight with mid 70s.
Wednesday will feature increasing heat as well as moisture. The actual temperature will only be about 1-2° higher but the heat index could get closer to 100°. We will have plenty of fuel for thunderstorms but no real trigger or wind energy. At least for much of WAVE Country. The exception will be to the NW of the city. There is a small trigger that as well as alittle wind that a few t-storms could pop. They will struggle to track east but their outflows (cold push of air from the upper layers of the t-storm) could push into the heat core into our southern IN counties and perhaps a few near Owensboro into Meade County. The air looks too warm above east of that to keep them going. Having said that, a few of the ones that do pop on our western fringes could turn briefly severe with gusty winds and hail. But this looks very isolated. Additional t-storms will try to push in from the NW overnight but the darkness of night will work against them in terms of fuel.
Thursday’s t-storm risk will highly depend on where the front is located. There should be a “gap” in between the Wednesday t-storms and the ones that re-fire Thursday afternoon along the front. That “gap” could very well line up over Louisville if timing works out. We will play that one by ear. Coverage will remain isolated but anything that can form can become very heavy/strong.
Just keep in mind what I mentioned at the start, many of you will get missed from the rain chances this week. If you need some rain, I hope you are one of the lucky ones!
Friday looks to be pick of the week and it won’t be anything spectacular but we’ll take it. Highs in the upper 80s with the heat index around 90. Brrrrr!
The heat will inch upward over the weekend into next week. The only risk of interruption it would be from the expected tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. The video up above covers that in more detail including our setup.