Yes, the focus is about to shift to our excessive heat that is about to invade WAVE Country (not like it hasn’t seemed hot already!)
But before we do, there is still a few t-storm chances we need to monitor as we transition from the leftovers of “Barry” into the heat shield.
Downpours will remain fairly scattered but locally heavy. The main zone for development will be maybe a row of counties west of I-65 and all points east from there. That is where downpours/t-storms will re-develop then track east. We will need to watch for locally heavy rainfall due to visibility and perhaps minor flash flooding if you pick up more than one of these guys. A couple could turn strong but not all of the ingredients are there to lead to an organized severe weather episode.
There will be a boundary that will develop in a more NW to SE fashion later tonight and Thursday across Kentucky. This looks to slowly shift east by Thursday afternoon before fading as high pressure really wins out. The question I am trying to answer is how active could this boundary be? Not only would that mean keeping t-storm chances in overnight but also for parts of Thursday but also a bust on high temperatures if they are able to re-develop in the afternoon hours. The plan right now is to go with both ideas. It will be a very hot day Thursday with highs into the mid 90s. The heat index will climb over 100° as well. But there is at least a chance to get some relief if a t-storm impacts your location at the right time. It appears area along/south of I-64 stand the better risk for such t-storms and that risk will keep shifting east by late afternoon.
Given the building heat, the amount of fuel will be moderate to extreme. This means that any thunderstorm that does pop in the heat Thursday could briefly turn severe with damaging winds and very intense lightning. But that threat looks very isolated right now as confidence in coverage of the t-storms to begin with is not very high. Hopefully Kevin and Ryan will have more info on this by the evening to better fine-tune this setup.
All abut the excessive heat. In fact, Excessive Heat WATCHES are out for all of WAVE Country Thursday into Sunday. Local NWS offices will then decide each day if a Heat Advisory (feels-like temps of 105-110°) is more appropriate or an upgrade to an Excessive Heat WARNING (feels-like temps that could exceed 110°) is more at play. Advisory or Warning, it will be dangerously hot so please take it easy and don’t forget about checking on those with limited access to cooling and of course, you pets!!
The heat will continue but the change here is to increase cloud cover a bit later in the day and perhaps a t-storm over Kentucky as well. We lowered the heat by like one notch for this day to account for that potential but overall, you won’t notice a change.
You will, however, notice a BIG change next week that will bring some rain Monday and Tuesday with sunshine and cooler weather for the rest of the week! Highs may even struggle to get into the 80s for our northern counties with lows in the 60s for all. Dare I say upper 50s for northern areas? It is possible!
Get ready for some classic weather whiplash!