Slowly getting back to “hot” levels with temperatures and the humidity is slowly getting back to “humid” levels.
Slow is good.
So the main question I am getting in regards to the forecast ahead is “When will it rain again?”.
We still have the very small chance in for the weekend but these still look to be small, isolated cells and mainly south/east of the city. Most will stay dry.
COLD FRONT: a front does push in late Monday into Tuesday. I am placing the main rain chance on Tuesday but it is possible some of our NW counties could pick up some action near sunset on Monday. The coverage extent is still in question as this still has a “scattered” look to it. Hopefully we will see this trend increase to give most locations at least some rainfall but I fear some will get missed again. It is hard to get widespread rainfall right off the bat when you are trying to break out of a dry pattern. At least, that is what our history has shown.
NORTHWEST FLOW: after the front fades out to our south Wednesday, the flow upstairs will turn stronger from the W/NW for the rest of the week and at least part of the weekend. This means we will have to watch little pieces of energy that will try to catch a ride in that flow and develop thunderstorms that would then drop in from that direction. These are the types of thunderstorm complexes that can start in Iowa (for example) and travel all day into the night into the Smoky Mountains. So once they form, it is easy to pinpoint time and locations. We are not at that stage yet, of course, but we do at least see the pattern fitting this setup about a week from today.
AUGUST: it appears the northwest flow mentioned above will come back into play at least a couple of times during the first 15 days of August. This will keep any heat waves at bay as temperatures would likely stay in the 80s. It can be a dry pattern with only small rain chances as northern systems just don’t have enough time to gain enough moisture for widespread rainfall. Something to watch as the month wears on.
I will cover all of this in the video PLUS a quick note for you B.O.T.S. fans.