Today looks to be our last “pretty” day before we start to change up the weather elements.
The first change will be the wind speeds Thursday. Gusts over 30 mph at times. Clouds will also increase from time to time but an overcast sky isn’t expected at this time. The rain will break out to our NW but it will take several hours to work its way south into southern Indiana. This looks more likely at night into early Friday. Temperatures will drop in the early evening into the lower 50s but the south wind will get stronger and that should push the numbers back up to 60 when we wake up Friday!
That strong push of wind may also push the rain band back north again Friday daytime. That is still a piece of the forecast we are working on. If that is the case, we could gain several more hours of dry, windy and warm weather. Southern IN still at risk for changes with that idea.
Late Friday night into Saturday is when the big guy moves in. This will be the main low pressure and cold front. The exact path and speed of the system is still varying. And timing makes a difference when it comes to a heavy rain event vs adding heavy rain and severe wind/isolated tornadoes into the mix.
So far, the idea is to increase the rain west of I-65 Saturday morning, along I-65 by midday and east of I-65 by the afternoon. But again, timing adjustments are likely to take place so stay close to the forecast.
Rainfall amounts will range on the higher when for those that pick up the Thursday night/Friday rain from the first front + the Saturday system. If you get both, 3-5″ is possible for you. If you just pick up the late Friday/Saturday event, 1-3″ looks more likely. The rates will be intense, so watch for flash flooding as well.
The video will cover this setup in much more detail.