I am going to hold off on “SnowTalk” for this update as we need to make sure everyone is aware of the heavy rain/flooding potential for Wednesday and even impacts beyond Wednesday.
Wednesday Morning: A rain band will increase in a horizontal fashion south to north. The leading edge may have a quick burst of wet snow with it but it won’t last long. The rain will become widespread through late morning and during lunch.
Wednesday Afternoon: The morning rain band will slow in its north push...keeping the rain steady for most locations. Perhaps a few breaks near the Parkways. By mid-afternoon, a vertical band of heavy rain will move west to east across all of WAVE Country. This will lead to a messy PM commute.
Wednesday Evening: Heavy rain early with some thunder/gusty winds near and south of E-town. The rain will ease back to showers by late evening and overnight.
Overall, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ look to be common with this setup. And while that may not see like a big issue, the problem is that the ground is saturated. Rainfall amounts that get closer to that 2″ mark especially, will lead to flash flooding in some areas. In addition, smaller streams/rivers will begin to flood. This looks especially true for central and southern Kentucky.
Larger rivers, like the Ohio, will have a delayed reaction to this event. It is currently forecast to reach Action Stage by Friday, Minor Flood Stage over the weekend and Moderate Flood Stage into next week. This is all based on the current rainfall forecast. Lesser than expected amounts will ease that threat downward. The same can be said if higher than expected totals are realized.
Stay tuned for updates!