Be sure to stay updated with the WAVE 3 Weather App as many adjustments will take place into the afternoon.
There will be a lot of shifting going on with our wind fields over as short period of time into this evening. That is leading to high values with the data in terms of the damaging wind potential and a few strong tornadoes. But it also means there can be a saving grace if one of the variables is off from the current data trends. It can make a difference. And I know everyone is nervous especially after what happened to Nashville/Cookeville TN recently. I get that. And we don’t want to scare you with tornado talk. Our job is to make sure you know of the threat potential and keep you updated. We can’t control the rest.
As it stands this morning, we will watch our wind direction switch from N to E then SE and S and then SW...all before midnight. It will be when the wind direction is S or SE that the risk for tornadoes will be in place. But even after that period, damaging winds will remain possible with any t-storm cell UNTIL the cold front moves in.
Fuel is also a big driver here. We have some sunshine now but the cloud deck will soon fill in. Will that be enough to tame things down later? Perhaps. This is also one of those setups where the surge of moisture is leading to an unstable setup.
The overall theme is for this to kick off with a couple of supercells across west-central KY. Where they develop exactly is still in question. There is a risk one or two of these cells could last for a few hours.
We will see a break for some areas before the next round of t-storms roll in. This time they will line up more into a line instead of isolated cells.
Timing of both rounds looks to be near 3-6pm and again 9pm-Midnight.
There will be some light rain thrown into the mix as well and I am still looking over that potential to see if that will help ease the severe threat as well.
So as you can see, there is a lot to watch and track with varying outcomes depending on your location. Let us worry about that aspect. All you need to do is find a way to stay informed and a way to get alerts. That is key.