Our weather pattern continues to repeat the same things, several quick-hitting storm systems with lots of wind energy... yet lacking lots of fuel. And in terms of severe weather, that isn’t a bad thing.
We have (2) such systems to track this week: Tuesday Evening and Saturday.
TUESDAY WAVE: Lots of wind shear with this little guy. But the lack of a strong surge of heating/moisture should help offset any severe thunderstorms. At least, that is how it looks on paper. Wind energy on model data rarely changes significantly as the features are larger in scale. However, the fuel portion is more sensitive to wind direction, cloud cover, precipitation falling in advance. There are exceptions to these guidelines, but these are the ones that usually play a role on severe weather locally. As it stands this morning, the fuel portion of this system looks displaced more to our south into TN. If that were to change and adjust back into play for KY once again, we’ll let you know.
SATURDAY WAVE: This setup will involve a strong warm front in advance followed by a strong cold front at the end (Saturday). This one does show plenty of fuel at least getting involved for a couple of days in advance actually. Timing will be a factor on whether or not those values drop enough to avoid any severe issues (Sat AM vs SAT PM). While the wind energy doesn’t look overly alarming, it looks to be enough to keep this item on the table.