Statistical model predicts coronavirus peaks and deaths by state

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WAVE) - Data modeling from the IHME, The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, paints a serious picture of the coronavirus impact in both Kentucky and Indiana.

Deaths from the coronavirus are predicted to peak first in Indiana on April 18, reaching 36 deaths per day.

In Kentucky, the peak is nearly a month later, hitting May 14, with 15 deaths per day.

“It’s a reasonably reliable tool,” University of Louisville Biostatistician K.B. Kulasekera told WAVE 3 News about the model. “It’s not the tool that will tell you everything 100 percent, but it has been used in the past and it is a reasonable tool to make certain predictions.”

Surprisingly, the IHME model predicts neither Kentucky nor Indiana is expected to have a shortage of hospital beds. The data shows at the peak of COVID-19 cases, Kentucky should meet the need with 450 Intensive Care Unit beds and nearly 62 hundred total beds. Indiana is predicted do the same with 700 ICU beds and 85 hundred total beds.

Experts caution that can easily change.

The model also predicts when the crisis will be over. In Indiana, the number of COVID-19 cases are expected to drop almost as quickly as they peaked with numbers dropping to the single digits by the first of June; for Kentucky, with its later peak and flatter curve, COVID-19 cases could continue into early July.

By August, when the crisis is over the total number of COVID-19 deaths in Indiana is predicted by the IHME to exceed 1000. In Kentucky, that number is estimated at just over 800.

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