Thunderstorms aside, get out and enjoy the warm afternoon ahead! It will be our last one like this for at least 10 days, perhaps 15.
Of course it is this warm surge that is leading to our severe thunderstorm threat. Anytime you see temperatures jump way ahead like this before a cold front, it means you you better get ready for a big drop after it. It will be that change in air mass that is going to lead to some robust thunderstorms later on.
Having said that, there are some factors that can help “ease” the threat. And let’s hope they show up to the party.
NOW-6PM: Warm. Mix of sun and clouds. Only a very isolated chance a t-storm could pop, mainly east of I-65.
6PM-8PM: We hold onto our dry setup while the radar lights up to our west.
8PM-12AM: A broken line of thunderstorm cells will move into SW IN and W KY. Large hail, damaging winds, very intense cloud-to-ground lightning and even a tornado will be possible. The timing window is large as details are unclear how the cells will evolve as they approach I-65. The setup certainly favors them congealing together into a more solid line. As this happens, parts of the line will speed up or “cold pool” out faster than other sections. In some cases there could be a good 90 min difference in timing along the line with the bowing segments. While a more linear idea does cut down on the hail and tornado threat over time, it does increase the straight-line wind threat. As it stands now, there is fuel certainly available for these thunderstorms. Although there is one that may help in easing at least some of the threats...and that is the lack of deep moisture. Dry air can help cut down the tornado and hail threat. We’ll just have to see how on track the data is as we get closer.
12AM-3AM: The “show” should be mainly over central KY...marching east of I-65 during this time. Southern IN and perhaps even Louisville look to have the threat end by the start of this window.
AFTER 3AM: Windy and much cooler.
There is another big system moving for Easter that will try to bring back some “winter” features next week. More on that in today’s video.