Main focus this week will be the upper low and its associated rain chances.
We are still in the south flow of the system today which is the reason for heavier downpours and even a severe risk (low-end) that will likely develop between I-65 and I-75 this afternoon. Flash flooding will be the main threat with this setup today and again, mainly for our central/eastern sections.
One the low drops down toward Nashville early Tuesday, our flow will switch to the E/SE. So the rain bands/showers will actually move “backwards” in appearance. Most will be showers but there could be pockets of modest heating with a pretty cold upstairs so it won’t take much for these to become heavy rain/lightning producers. Even small hail or what we call cold-air funnels could develop. That is on one of the spectrum, however. Most will fall in the more showery category.
The low will remain to our south/east into Wednesday. Keeping the flow from the E or even NE at times. Spotty showers will likely continue at times.
Finally, the low will lift more northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. As that happens, our atmosphere will get re-established with the calendar into a summer-feel. In fact, the 80s will rule the holiday weekend with only a few afternoon t-storms possible. While 90 degrees was reachable in the extended in previous updates, that was with a drier ground setup. Now that we have/are adding rainfall into the region along with more lush green vegetation,, 90 degrees is going to be harder to reach. It may feel like it at times, however.