The remnants of Cristobal will be our focus today in terms of general wind speeds and any stronger t-storm that can become organized.
The threat for Wednesday is all about a cold front that will push into this very humid air with another round of thunderstorms.
While both have signs of producing severe weather, both setups do feature a couple of arguments against it...so both are really “conditional” threats that we have to take slowly.
TODAY: There look to be (3) main threats with this setup. (1) general wind gusts of 30-40 mph for much of the day with it remaining breezy tonight into Wednesday...just not as strong on the gust-side. (2) torrential rainfall with rainfall rates near 2.50″/hour in some locations. The good news here is that the storms will be moving and not stalling...likely cutting down on overall rain totals. However, it is the “rate” that can cause driving issues while it is coming down (3) isolated tornado threat. The natural circulation of “Cristobal” is allow for rotating thunderstorms today. However, if heating ends up more limited...they will struggle to gain the height to produce a tornado threat. This is a factor we are analyzing closely and still looks higher for IL and SW IN at this point.
The t-storm activity will then taper down this evening with the air remaining very humid tonight. Remember, this is not a cold front passing through today, just Cristobal.
WEDNESDAY: This is when we DO face a cold front. Timing is the main challenge here as the front will already be passing through WAVE Country when you wake up in the morning. The quicker it passes your location, the quicker you will enter the “safe” zone from thunderstorms. Based on the current timing, a row of counties west of I-65 looks to be the start of the “t-storm zone” and points east. It will not take long for them to turn strong/severe so this could end up be more of a midday threat Wednesday into the early afternoon. Again, we’ll take it one step at a time.
We will face one more cold front Friday that will not have much moisture to work with. It will, however, cool us down a bit for the weekend.
The video today will cover the above items PLUS a look into another interesting setup next week...