StormTALK! Weather Blog: Tuesday Update

StormTALK! Weather Blog Update

The (2) main items remain on the charts this week: the heat & Laura

HEAT: Given the lack of prolonged heat waves this season, anytime we see the heat index jump to near 100 degrees does get more attention and takes even more of a toll on our bodies. Just take it easy outside the next couple of days and make sure to check on your pets and keep fresh/cold water in their bowls if they have to be outside.

LAURA: The next couple of days will tell the main story on this cyclone as it enters deep, warm water. Modeling since 2010 has improved on hurricane track forecasting but intensity forecasts still remain a challenge. So this is still one to watch.

As it tracks north toward the Ozarks Thursday, it will slow down. This is the crucial part of the forecast for WAVE Country. It will be at this ‘stalling point’ that Laura (a much weaker system by this point) starts to turn right. But will that turn right aim closer to I-40 in TN or I-64 across KY? Or somewhere in between? All three ideas are still on the table. A cold front pushing in from the north will likely aid in this turn and speed it will take as it turns right.

Yes, there will be wind with this system but the worst of that looks to be on its eastern and southern side (roughly 30-40 mph gusts). There will be a tornado threat with it, again, on its SE side. The heavy rain core will basically follow the entire core of the system but the speeding up as it makes that right turn will at least ease down the totals compared to say what Arkansas will likely see. The only side note here is we will have a front dropping into the mix as well, so there is a chance we could see some higher totals with that getting involved but just too early to pinpoint.

Timing of the main impacts looks to be Friday night into Saturday as it stands now. More to come on this.

Have a Goode one!

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