Picks for Oaks and Derby

Picks for Oaks and Derby
Some amazing performances could be on tap at the Downs (Source: Dan Dry)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WAVE) - After a long, long wait it’s finally here ! Oaks/Derby weekend is here ! It’s gonna be different but at least we get the chance to see some incredible equine athletes. Let’s talk Lillies and Roses.

This edition of the Kentucky Oaks features quite a showdown between Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. The Bob Baffert-trained Gamine has been brilliant. What are we actually watching with her? Is she one of those once-in-a-lifetime fillies? She has posted some amazing times for her races. Run with her early at your own peril.

Gamine will almost certainly get to the front in the Oaks, and will try to take the field wire-to-wire. The key in the race to me is what Swiss Skydiver’s jockey, Tyler Gaffalione chooses to do. Will he try to chase her early on, or let another jock and filly go after Gamine and try to take some starch out of her? Gaffalione probably has to go after Gamine and challenge her at some point down the backstretch.

One advantage Swiss Skydiver has over Gamine is all her experience going a route of ground. After rolling in last month’s mile and quarter Alabama Stakes, Swiss Skydiver looks like she could run all day. She hasn’t shown any signs of tailing off.

At the head of the stretch in the Oaks, I expect Gamine to be leading. I say she’ll be caught by Swiss Skydiver,who’ll get the victory and give trainer Ken McPeek his first Oaks.

Now to the Run for the Roses. This one is simple: Tiz the Law is your winner. He deserves to be an overwhelming favorite. Look , one day he will start tailing off but don’t think it happens in Derby 146. He has made good horses look ordinary. He just gets better and better, faster and faster.

Tiz the Law checks off all the boxes: talent, power, tactical speed...and oh yes, he’s already won at mile and quarter (see that Travers Stakes as he was geared down in the final eighth of a mile and still posted one of the fastest clockings in race’s history.)

The outside post position won’t matter for Tiz the Law who’ll win the Derby with Honor AP second and Ny Traffic third.

Good luck to all and enjoy.

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