Goode Weather Blog 9/19

Published: Sep. 19, 2022 at 11:27 AM EDT
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Louisville did pick up .07″ in rainfall this morning so that will break up the dry streak.

The main rain shield is settling south into TN with full-sun taking place just north of the Metro…heading our way.

That then leads to the challenge for later today. Do we regain enough fuel for additional thunderstorms?

It is possible.  Hi-res data still hints that a boundary currently being left behind along I-65 should be the one to watch after 4 or 5pm through about 11pm.  Soundings do show quite the dry mid-deck but are still strong with the SRH values (250+ at 0-3k).  The current thinking is more low-topped convection that could fire along the I-65 zone that will have about a 2-3 hour lifespan at best to them.  Something to monitor later on but right now looks minor.

Some fog is possible tonight, especially in areas where the ground remains wet and if we get the evening t-storm round.  So kept that risk low for now until we see how the rain part plays out.

Tuesday, the highest PWATs shift more west so a decent surge of heat kicks in.

Wednesday still looks to the hottest day for the last day of Summer.  It will still technically be summer when the next front moves in Thursday with the cooler weather arriving that night as the calendar catches up.

The plan is to look more at PoPs for Thursday’s front and to fine-tune the temps after the 12z data is complete.  But it is apparent we are going to get some cool (dare I say “chilly) weather into the weekend.