Goode Weather Blog 9/21

Published: Sep. 21, 2022 at 10:34 AM EDT
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NCEP/NOAA hasn’t had a fun morning with delayed products.  Having said that, still getting a decent image of the setup ahead.

T/Td so far on lining up well with hi-res data.  Current forecast MaxT of 96 looks good for now.  Some cirrus may stream in later from the NW and that is keeping me from making any changes for this update.

Still a varying setup on any convective after 5pm through midnight.  It still looks like S IN and up 71 would carry a 20-30 pop and lower south.  Soundings still show support for some strong wind gusts/bowing segment or two.

Thursday looks showery in the AM with the clouds taking some time to break up and shift south.  That may keep some in the 60s meaning MaxT’s for Thursday could very well be whatever our temps are at midnight tonight.  Decent wind gusts over 20 mph for much of the day.

The cool Friday AM setup is still there with lots of 40s.

The weekend seems to be evening out a bit on the rain chance.  A bit more coverage on Saturday and a bit less on Sunday.  I’ll wait for the midday data to see if any pops need adjusting to see if this trend holds.

The Sunday/Monday wave may dig to still allow for a backlash front around Wednesday with perhaps some showers with that.  It will be that system that will then roll away giving the pathway to the TC that will likely be somewhere across the SE US at that point.  Still lots of questions on that track and local impacts.