NEXT 18 HOURS
Let me start off by saying the alert is the risk for isolated flash flooding and perhaps strong to severe wind gusts west of I-65 later tonight. It is a highly conditional threat as well with timing on our side.
This is all about the ball of energy that is rolling in from the next over the next 24 hours. It is impressive to see it on the maps for August. So when you combine that energy with a hot, humid afternoon...you run into problems. There is where timing comes in.
It appears the energy will arrive at the "warmest" part of the day over IL/ SW IN, W KY, W TN, SE MO and NE AR. That is the zone to watch in terms of widespread severe thunderstorms.
By the time the energy reaches up and down I-65, we will already be on the downward slide when it comes to the fuel with the sun dropping below the horizon. Having said that, the amount of moisture in the air will still be high. So I fully expect clusters of thunderstorms to push through. Just likely not as intense as what those locations mentioned above will experience. And also quite important to mention, data trends show a split in the t-storms this evening. Which means some if not most of the area still has a *chance* to slide perfectly into a dry gap and miss any action period. Not like we haven't witnessed that before!
Does this mean no severe weather for any of our 29 counties tonight? No. It just means the risk for that is lower than to the west. In other words, just be alert and aware with no need to alter plans.
Between now and then, we will have spotty downpours and thunderstorms.this afternoon. Heavy rain the main concern with those.
At least most of the thunderstorms will actually be MOVING today and tonight. This cuts down on the flash flooding risk.
The low pressure driving all of this will be right over the Ohio Valley. It will be breezy and cooler. Spotty showers will rotate around the low from the north by Tuesday afternoon.